US Demography and the big crush ahead

[Polly]

Somewhere in the middle:

http://www.chinathetimes.com/forum/index.php?topic=1533.15

A couple of gold sites:

http://www.321gold.com/

http://www.kitco.com/

[Polly]

Which graph?

That explains everything. You don't bother reading the articles you reference before posting them 

[shan]

Interesting, interesting!

What you said are all new to me, I will do some research but basically I trust what you said.

Anyway, buying paper gold is a good idea but I worry if gold can be bought freely

[shan]

Although art threw his question, but in the bottom of his heart, I believe he agreed to what Polly said, for what Polly said is absolutely right; D

[Polly]

  Thank you Shan, you are forever so encouraging and uplifting to me .

To put it very shortly, the beauty of the 4-part theory is that instead of looking at the bewildering movement and momemtum of the curve, we look at TIME. 

So if you know from experience or graphs the time between the peak and the lowest rock bottom, you know the period of consolidation will be roughly the same, as will the periods of development and madness.  You can time the market and zero in at the most favourable stage and exit right before it peaks thereby maximising your profit!  And you can play with different markets while waiting for one market to reach a favourable stage.

This method is ideal for private investors who want to be able to sleep at night as well .

You guys already know my views on gold.

Let's try something that will fetch an earlier result. 

Let's use the UK property market for example. 



Applying this theory, my prediction is that the UK property market still has 3 years to go before it finally goes down ending the last stage of madness.  I know there are numbers and figures now that show even down town London is seeing cuts in asking price, but I think it will either go down and kick up (which is often seen) or plateau for the next 3 years.

Art and time will tell me if I am wrong.

[Art]

I know zilch about the HK housing market and so wouldn't so much as attempt an opinion on it however the UK market I am more familiar with and UK housing is screwed. Prices are going to fall it's only a question of by how much and for how long and that depends on how many other mortgage lenders like Northern Rock are in trouble, what decisions are made re interest rates and whether or not the 'buy to let' brigade hold their nerve or start dumping. The next few months will determine if the housing sector is in for a hard or soft landing.

As for the rest of your post I've just made a great discovery of my own 2+2=4 !!! It's so incredible I think I'll patent it. It's amazing nobody has thought of it before. 

[shan]

www.ft.com

Foreign investors have slashed their holdings of US securities by a record amount as the credit squeeze intensified, according to the latest Treasury figures.

The Treasury International Capital report – known as the TIC – for August will be closely watched because it appears amid growing concerns about the weakness of the US dollar, which hit a record low recently against a basket of major currencies.

“The bad news is that [the data] plainly shows how vulnerable the dollar is to a continuation of the credit crunch-risk averse environment,” said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital. “There is no way to get away from the lack of corporate bond inflows, the foreign selling of US equities and the countervailing strong US purchases of foreign equities and bonds.”